Future Energy Scenarios 2024

🌍🔋 National Grid ESO's 2024 Future Energy Scenarios are out, spotlighting pathways to a net-zero Britain. 🚀

The ESO produced a range of outcomes between four suggested energy transition pathways. At Gridcog, we think the ESO’s “Holistic Transition“ pathway is the most exciting. This scenario sees a heavy role for electrification, flexibility and consumer engagement, while hydrogen’s main role is in industry.

☀️💨🔋 Renewable generation is expected to increase massively in all scenarios, increasing from 56GW in 2023 to up to 161GW by 2030 and to up to 309GW by 2050. What this looks like for some renewable technologies:

- Solar capacity to increase by up to 167% by 2030, and up to 613% by 2050.

- Onshore wind capacity to increase by up to 100% by 2030 and up to 205% by 2050.

- Storage to increase by up to 347% by 2030 and up to 523% by 2050.

📈 Peak demand is expected to increase substantially too, up to 109GW by 2050 from 58GW today. A big driver of this is electrification of heat and transport. This highlights the need for grid upgrades and flexible assets.

🚗🏠 Consumer flexibility is still expected to play a large role in the energy transition. This is especially relevant in the Holistic Transition Scenario, where demand flexibility reaches 15GW in 2030 and 71GW in 2050 … a whopping 68% of which is expected to come from transport, 24% from residential consumer, and 8% from the I&C sector.

We’d like to acknowledge the good work being done by the ESO by providing a transparent, future-focused, and comprehensive outlook! Ultimately, the implementation of these changes will come down to developing individual projects at specific sites with their own sets of challenges and opportunities. There will be massive investments into the energy transition over the next 25 years even in the most pessimistic or “Counterfactual” scenario.

💬 Reach out to Gridcog to see how you can be part of the energy transition! Our software allows you to model the energy transition on a site-by-site basis, showing you how to optimise your assets for maximum financial benefit while achieving your decarbonisation goals.